Building insights on true positives vs. False positives: Bayes' rule

COVID-19 pandemic policies requiring disease testing provide a rich context to build insights on true positives versus false positives. Our main contribution to the pedagogy of data analytics and statistics is to propose a method for teaching updating of probabilities using Bayes' rule reasoning to build understanding that true positives and false positives depend on the prior probability. Our instructional approach has three parts. First, we show how to construct and interpret raw frequency data tables, instead of using probabilities. Second, we use dynamic visual displays to develop insights and help overcome calculation avoidance or errors. Third, we look at graphs of positive predictive values and negative predictive values for different priors. The learning activities we use include lectures, in-class discussions and exercises, breakout group problem solving sessions, and homework. Our research offers teaching methods to help students understand that the veracity of test results depends on the prior probability as well as helps students develop fundamental skills in understanding probabilistic uncertainty alongside higher-level analytical and evaluative skills. Beyond learning to update the probability of having the disease given a positive test result, our material covers naive estimates of the positive predictive value, the common mistake of ignoring the disease's base rate, debating the relative harm from a false positive versus a false negative, and creating a new disease test. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved)

Accounting Earnings and Economic Growth, Trends, and Challenges: A Bibliometric Approach.

In recent years, studies have been conducted to quantify the relationship between microeconomic and macroeconomic development. Macroeconomics is the orientation of microeconomic development. Existing research hopes to quantify the relationship between macroeconomics and micro-firms, rather than just focusing on economic indicators. And some empirical studies try to use the relationship between them to discuss its usefulness for micro-firm decision-making. This article focuses on applying and developing aggregate earnings in connecting microenterprise earnings and macroeconomic development. To achieve this goal, this research did a comprehensive bibliometric analysis on macro-accounting on the two most influential databases, namely, Web of Science and Scopus. It used the information visualization software VOSviewer to draw knowledge maps to sort research lines. We also analyzed the research hotspots of macro-accounting in recent years according to the year scale and combined it with the neural network PSO-LSTM model to predict their future development. It turns out that the research on aggregate earnings related to economic growth has become a research hotspot in recent years. Scopus research and development potential is better than Web of Science in this field.

Virtual meeting, real and sound science: report of the 17th Meeting of the Spanish Society for Developmental Biology (SEBD-2020).

The Spanish Society for Developmental Biology (SEBD) organized its 17th meeting in November 2020 (herein referred to as SEBD2020). This meeting, originally programmed to take place in the city of Bilbao, was forced onto an online format due to the SARS-CoV2, COVID-19 pandemic. Although, we missed the live personal interactions and missed out on the Bilbao social scene, we were able to meet online to present our work and discuss our latest results. An overview of the activities that took place around the meeting, the different scientific sessions and the speakers involved are presented here. The pros and cons of virtual meetings are discussed.